AOL to IPO in 2008?

A few news sites have picked up that in the listing documents for AOL's deal with Google it states that Google has a right to push for an IPO of AOL in 2008 or Time Warner has to buy their 5% stake at a fair market value. This has led to some rampant speculation that AOL will IPO in 2008 and this is Parsons game plan.

I don't think so. This is a standard provision for a deal like this. It allows Google a sensible exit at the end of their contract period (3 years). This doesn't by any means state that Time Warner is considering an IPO of AOL as a part of its strategy, even though it might be convenient to get Icahn and his hedge fund babies to think so.

So sexy as it seems this snippet gives us no better idea of what Time Warner is really planning for AOL. My bet is that they'll try for another 12-18 months to make AOL work within the Time Warner unbrella and if it works they'll hang onto it and if not they'll IPO AOL or merge it with someone else - maybe even Google?!