After Deutsche Telekom decided not to challenge Telefonica's bid for the UK and German mobile operator, O2, industry pundits are now focussed on where Deutsche Telekom is likely to aim their sights. After all, it seems that Deutsche could get away with spending around $25bn on acquisitions given their sucess in reducing debt and restructuring their balance sheet over the last few years.
Well, it looks as though a transformational mobile phone acquisition is not the most likely outcome, which will of course depress the hell out of all those M&A bankers. It looks like Deutsche may instead focus on expanding T-Mobile agressively in the US.
T-Mobile today is the 4th largest mobile phone operator in the US, with particular traction on the east coast. But they're a distant 4th. And there isn't really anyone left for them to merge with given that AT&T Mobile got swallowed by Cingular and Nextel merged with Sprint.
So instead Deutsche Telekom is going to try and grow the T-Mobile franchise organically and invest $5-10bn over the next few years in upgrading their network to mobile broadband. Mind you, given that is what all the other leading US operators will be doing I'm not quite sure how this differentiates them. Maybe its because T-Mobile know about doing mobile broadband because they've already done it in Europe??
Given that T-Mobile has failed in building a truly pan-European mobile network to take on Vodafone and perhaps Orange, and given that they are a weak 4th in the US market, I can't help feeling that Deutsche Telekom will need to do more with their $25bn if they want to be a world leader in mobile telecoms.
Monday, November 07, 2005
Sunday, November 06, 2005
Sun - SAP to attack banking sector
SAP's CEO has announced that they want to get more aggressive in the banking sector, particularly in the US and Asia. This seems to be a direct shot at Oracle who has particular strength in the banking niche.
The war between SAP and Oracle just gets louder and louder and even SAP admits that competition is fierce and as a result margins are getting tighter. SAP has the edge at the moment, but if Oracle can get it together, they'll have to move hard and fast to keep gaining market share.
Oh, and seeing as Microsoft has gone and gotten al religious about on demand software - when will Oracle and SAP throw their hats in too?!
The war between SAP and Oracle just gets louder and louder and even SAP admits that competition is fierce and as a result margins are getting tighter. SAP has the edge at the moment, but if Oracle can get it together, they'll have to move hard and fast to keep gaining market share.
Oh, and seeing as Microsoft has gone and gotten al religious about on demand software - when will Oracle and SAP throw their hats in too?!
Friday, November 04, 2005
Fri - Another big announcement just in from Autonomy
Autonomy has just agreed to buy U.S. peer Verity Inc for $500M in cash to gain a dominant position in the information handling software market and boost earnings.
Autonomy said it was raising 153 million pounds via a fully-underwritten rights issue to help pay for Sunnyvale, California-based Verity which supplies search and process management software to 15,000 customers worldwide.
This is a strong move by Autonomy and one that should allow them to keep extending their lead in the market for corporate search software.
Autonomy said it was raising 153 million pounds via a fully-underwritten rights issue to help pay for Sunnyvale, California-based Verity which supplies search and process management software to 15,000 customers worldwide.
This is a strong move by Autonomy and one that should allow them to keep extending their lead in the market for corporate search software.
Fri - OK so Microsoft are definitely trying to become Google
This has been an extraordinary week for Microsoft. First they tell us that they are planning to become the on demand software company of the future, beating back current leader Google. Today they tell us that they're going to beat Google at making a bunch more library books available over the internet.
Given that Microsoft are a little legally jaded after numerous settlements and fines over the last bunch of years we can't help feeling that they may keep their efforts focussed on books they can legally scan - i.e. probably pre 1923 and considered to be in the public domain.
Mind you, not wishing to be out Microsofted, Amazon today announced that they're planning to sell single pages of books over the internet. This is presumably the book worlds equivalent of iTunes - instead we now have iPages...or whatever. Quite why you'd want to read/buy/whatever one page of a book over the web I can't quite figure out - but I'm sure I'm missing something - I normally do!
Given that Microsoft are a little legally jaded after numerous settlements and fines over the last bunch of years we can't help feeling that they may keep their efforts focussed on books they can legally scan - i.e. probably pre 1923 and considered to be in the public domain.
Mind you, not wishing to be out Microsofted, Amazon today announced that they're planning to sell single pages of books over the internet. This is presumably the book worlds equivalent of iTunes - instead we now have iPages...or whatever. Quite why you'd want to read/buy/whatever one page of a book over the web I can't quite figure out - but I'm sure I'm missing something - I normally do!
Fri - Search all the rage as Autonomy out-performs
Autonomy, the UK provider of search software tools more than doubled their profits in the first 9 months as an increasing number of companies adopted their technology to search and manage unstructured data. Revenues also rose 21% year on year.
The interesting opportunity facing Autonomy is whether they can drive home technology recently developed which allows TV and video clips to be searched and catalogued. This allows bradcasters, content owners and mobile telephone companies to offer on-demand content services over the internet. And boy do they need the help.
Apparently Autonomy recently signed a deal with a European broadcaster. Getting this piece right is not only imperative for Autonomy, but could really help take IP content to the next level. Let,s hope.
The interesting opportunity facing Autonomy is whether they can drive home technology recently developed which allows TV and video clips to be searched and catalogued. This allows bradcasters, content owners and mobile telephone companies to offer on-demand content services over the internet. And boy do they need the help.
Apparently Autonomy recently signed a deal with a European broadcaster. Getting this piece right is not only imperative for Autonomy, but could really help take IP content to the next level. Let,s hope.
Fri - Oracle keeps losing CFO's
Oracle has just lost their second CFO this year. This time, the ex-Microsoft CFO, Greg Maffel, only at Oracle since June has suddenly departed. His predecessor, Harry You had only been at the company for a year.
The rumours seem to state that Maffei lost a political battle with Oracle President Safra Catz. Ms Catz will now assume the CFO responsibilities as well as being in charge of global operations.
These shenanigans seem a little inapropriate for a company the size of Oracle and a dangerous distraction given all the challenges they have in integrating their various acquisitions. Oracle seems to be a little prone to shoot themselves in the foot and are allowing SAP an easier ride than they might.
Not surprisingly Oracles stock price has been punished.
The rumours seem to state that Maffei lost a political battle with Oracle President Safra Catz. Ms Catz will now assume the CFO responsibilities as well as being in charge of global operations.
These shenanigans seem a little inapropriate for a company the size of Oracle and a dangerous distraction given all the challenges they have in integrating their various acquisitions. Oracle seems to be a little prone to shoot themselves in the foot and are allowing SAP an easier ride than they might.
Not surprisingly Oracles stock price has been punished.
Thursday, November 03, 2005
Thurs - Nokia getting big on multimedia converged handsets
Nokia is about to launch a bunch of multimedia handsets that they hope will allow them to steal a march on the market as they anticipate a merger of the telco industry with information technology, consumer electronics and broadcasting.
Their new N series handsets will allow users to watch and record live TV and exchange content like music and photos with electronic equipment in the home. They are also introducing a new internet browsing tool which will enhance the internet experience on a small display.
Their new N series for corporates will allow email users to send attachments on mobil phones more securely and easily. This could be bad news for Blackberry.
Nokia believes that the market for such multimedia or smartphone devices will double to 100M next year. This is becoming a major niche in the overall mobile landscape. I can't help feeling Nokia is really onto something. Oh, so when will they announce something with Google - everyone else is!
Their new N series handsets will allow users to watch and record live TV and exchange content like music and photos with electronic equipment in the home. They are also introducing a new internet browsing tool which will enhance the internet experience on a small display.
Their new N series for corporates will allow email users to send attachments on mobil phones more securely and easily. This could be bad news for Blackberry.
Nokia believes that the market for such multimedia or smartphone devices will double to 100M next year. This is becoming a major niche in the overall mobile landscape. I can't help feeling Nokia is really onto something. Oh, so when will they announce something with Google - everyone else is!
Thurs - leading US cable groups to offer wireless services
Four leading US cable companies, including Comcast and Time Warner Cable have entered the fast growing wireless arena in a joint venture with Sprint Nextel.
This looks like a smart move on both sides. The four cable companies get to take the triple play of TV, telephony and internet access to the next level with the quadruple play including wireless also.
This will help them compete better against the big Telco players such as Verizon and SBC now AT&T. Both of these monster telco companies are about to launch their own pay-TV services and therefore have an automatic quadruple play.
For Sprint this gives them instant access to all the cable companies customers. It should be good for consumers too as services will become more integrated and prices will keep coming down.
This looks like a smart move on both sides. The four cable companies get to take the triple play of TV, telephony and internet access to the next level with the quadruple play including wireless also.
This will help them compete better against the big Telco players such as Verizon and SBC now AT&T. Both of these monster telco companies are about to launch their own pay-TV services and therefore have an automatic quadruple play.
For Sprint this gives them instant access to all the cable companies customers. It should be good for consumers too as services will become more integrated and prices will keep coming down.
Thurs - Swisscom circling Eircom?
Rumours seem to be circling that Swisscom may be approaching Eircom about a potential bid that could be worth around $4.5bn.
The leading Swiss telco buying the leading Irish telco looks interesting but not as strategically compelling as Swisscom buying TDC. TDC after all gives them access to multiple European markets whereas Eircom just the Irish market.
I can't help feeling that Swisscom may do better to spend their $12bn acquisition cash pile on trying to become at least a mid size player in a few relevant European countries than just a player in Switzerland and Ireland.
Maybe they're thinking buying Eircom and another player?? We'll see soon.
The leading Swiss telco buying the leading Irish telco looks interesting but not as strategically compelling as Swisscom buying TDC. TDC after all gives them access to multiple European markets whereas Eircom just the Irish market.
I can't help feeling that Swisscom may do better to spend their $12bn acquisition cash pile on trying to become at least a mid size player in a few relevant European countries than just a player in Switzerland and Ireland.
Maybe they're thinking buying Eircom and another player?? We'll see soon.
Wednesday, November 02, 2005
Wed - Time Warner extends stock buy back
Time Warner, the world’s largest media group, today lifted its share buyback programme by $7.5bn as it reported an 80% rise in 3rd quarter net profits.
The company said it now planned to repurchase $12.5bn of stock over the next 21 months rather than the $5bn originally announced in August.
I guess Mr Icahn is getting his way after all. Or, is this just a technique to keep him at bay while Time Warner makes their own decisions on what to do with their cable business and with AOL. We should find out very soon.
And with Microsoft's latest announcements and their launch of live.com what's really going on with their discussions about merging MSN and AOL? It either looks more likely to happen - or just more stupid. And, of course, Parsons must never underestimate Microsoft!
The company said it now planned to repurchase $12.5bn of stock over the next 21 months rather than the $5bn originally announced in August.
I guess Mr Icahn is getting his way after all. Or, is this just a technique to keep him at bay while Time Warner makes their own decisions on what to do with their cable business and with AOL. We should find out very soon.
And with Microsoft's latest announcements and their launch of live.com what's really going on with their discussions about merging MSN and AOL? It either looks more likely to happen - or just more stupid. And, of course, Parsons must never underestimate Microsoft!
Wed - ivillage up for sale?
It seems that ivillage, the pioneering womens web content business that includes ivillage.com and women.com, is likely to get sold. They have apparently decided that they should take advantage of increased interest in internet businesses by both media companies and web portals.
It seems as though ivillage has asked JPMorgan to consider a sale. It looks like they may go for a price tab nearing $700M. Not bad for a company that had revenues last year of $70M and around $2.5M in profits. If they can achieve such a valuation then good on them, particularly as today their worth around $550M.
It seems as though ivillage has asked JPMorgan to consider a sale. It looks like they may go for a price tab nearing $700M. Not bad for a company that had revenues last year of $70M and around $2.5M in profits. If they can achieve such a valuation then good on them, particularly as today their worth around $550M.
Wed - Deutshe Telekom will not bid for O2 - announces lay-offs instead
Deutsche Telekom today announced that they will not bid for O2, the UK and German mobile phone operator, so leaving the deal to Telefonica of Spain to complete.
Instead Deutsche Telekom announced that their fixed line business is increasinlgy challenged by competition and regulatory pressures, to the point where they will have to lay-off 19,000 employees.
It seems as though both their traditional fixed line voice business and their emerging broadband business are struggling. This is negative for the German incumbant. Struggling in fixed line voice is no surprise, but also struggling in broadband adoption is concerning. Oh dear, yet another blow to Germany!
Instead Deutsche Telekom announced that their fixed line business is increasinlgy challenged by competition and regulatory pressures, to the point where they will have to lay-off 19,000 employees.
It seems as though both their traditional fixed line voice business and their emerging broadband business are struggling. This is negative for the German incumbant. Struggling in fixed line voice is no surprise, but also struggling in broadband adoption is concerning. Oh dear, yet another blow to Germany!
Tuesday, November 01, 2005
Tues - Sprint challenges Apples iTunes
Sprint today announced the launch of their direct-to-mobile music download service to rival Apple's iTunes and Motorla's ROKR.
The Sprint Music Store will enable Sprint Nextel subscribers to choose from 250,000 songs from all 4 major music labels and download them for $2.50. This is more expensive than iTunes 99c's, but you get two copies of each song - one direct to your mobile and one to your PC.
Currently Apple's iTunes is only downloadable to your PC or music player. The Motorola ROKR downloads songs from the PC, not from their mobile network. Srpint Nextel is launching devices made by Sanyo and Samsung which will enable the service.
This looks to me like the first truly meaningful challenge to iTunes. The idea of a mobile phone becoming as powerful as a music player in both downloading and storing songs is compelling. Expect other carriers to come out with similar services soon, putting even more pressure on Apple.
The Sprint Music Store will enable Sprint Nextel subscribers to choose from 250,000 songs from all 4 major music labels and download them for $2.50. This is more expensive than iTunes 99c's, but you get two copies of each song - one direct to your mobile and one to your PC.
Currently Apple's iTunes is only downloadable to your PC or music player. The Motorola ROKR downloads songs from the PC, not from their mobile network. Srpint Nextel is launching devices made by Sanyo and Samsung which will enable the service.
This looks to me like the first truly meaningful challenge to iTunes. The idea of a mobile phone becoming as powerful as a music player in both downloading and storing songs is compelling. Expect other carriers to come out with similar services soon, putting even more pressure on Apple.
Tues - Sky in mobile TV deal with Vodafone
Sky and Vodafone are launching a 3G mobile television service that will include Sky News, Sky Sports News, and entertainment channels including Living TV, Bravo and MTV.
The service will be available to all Vodafone 3G subscribers in the UK from Tuesday. Mobile phone operators are preparing for a 3G marketing push this Christmas. Vodafone is hoping to increase its base of 250,000 3G by the end of the year.
Look for 3G handsets and data/media deals such as this one to drive the European and US markets for this Xmas season. Sprints announcement today that they're taking on iTunes with their direct-to-mobile music download service is another example.
Everyone has been predicting for a while that Xmas 2005 will see that real coming of 3G on mobile phones. They will not be wrong. Finally. Oh, and where's my nearest Vodafone store - this deal I like!
The service will be available to all Vodafone 3G subscribers in the UK from Tuesday. Mobile phone operators are preparing for a 3G marketing push this Christmas. Vodafone is hoping to increase its base of 250,000 3G by the end of the year.
Look for 3G handsets and data/media deals such as this one to drive the European and US markets for this Xmas season. Sprints announcement today that they're taking on iTunes with their direct-to-mobile music download service is another example.
Everyone has been predicting for a while that Xmas 2005 will see that real coming of 3G on mobile phones. They will not be wrong. Finally. Oh, and where's my nearest Vodafone store - this deal I like!
Tues - Online travel bookings up 25% on last year
JupiterResearch has just brought out a report that shows that online travel, the largest e-commerce category, went up 35% last year. They predict that online travel will account for a third of all US travel sales by 2010, a big ouch for travel agents.
They cite both greater numbers of online consumers and an increase in travel products as key reasons for the increase. It also looks like the web sites of suppliers, from airlines to hotel groups, will increase their share of online travel, at the expense of the Travelocities and Expedias of this world.
Flights will continue to be by far the largest sector of online travel. The US market is a key indicator of where international markets are heading as well, all be it that the international markets are a few years behind.
They cite both greater numbers of online consumers and an increase in travel products as key reasons for the increase. It also looks like the web sites of suppliers, from airlines to hotel groups, will increase their share of online travel, at the expense of the Travelocities and Expedias of this world.
Flights will continue to be by far the largest sector of online travel. The US market is a key indicator of where international markets are heading as well, all be it that the international markets are a few years behind.
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